Michael Scales On World Financial Market
Dear Mr. Editor,
The world financial markets couldn't have done much better if they had been following Freedom Newspapers track and account of the credit crunch over the last 18 months or so.…
In September 2007, I predicted accurately that the world financial markets would hit an economic tsunami. I advised that the depth of the economic recession would be gauged by the rapid decline in the price of crude oil. At the time crude was still on its meteoric rise reaching $157 dollars per barrel, with many annalists predicting it to top $200 dollars per barrel.
However as anticipated and we predicted, the price of crude oil, fell to a record low of $35 dollars per barrel and this lit the flame of recession around the world with amazing speed, creating "The Perfect Storm." This rendered some of the oldest and most trusted financial institutions in the world to decline restructure or collapse.
The first businesses to feel the crunch the hardest were those that heavily relied on bank funding to service its cash flow projects as the banks became heavily over extended.
Lending was restricted by plummeting cash flow receipts and overdrafts and measured and secured loans were called in or cancelled.
Mortgage debt began to accumulate and personal credit which had increasingly became unregulated, on the back of 10 years of unprecedented economic growth and encouraging long term forecasts. This was supported in the of growth in the International trading figures of universally healthy looking International balance sheets.
In January this year we predicted that an economic "bounce" would be seen by late spring to mid summer.
Crude oil prices have now risen to over $ 63 dollars per barrel with an anticipated rise to around $80 dollars possible by the end of the year or even earlier.
The U.K. stock market has risen steadily from its all time low of last year and sterling has now gained to $ 1 dollar 60 to a pound and will continue to gain against the dollar and the Euro in the coming months.
Job losses will continue at least until the end of this year and possibly into the next.
The long term effects of the present situation will be felt for many years to come.
However, those reading this piece who have a personal business idea, would do well to engage it right now. The U.K. housing market, I believe is about to Bottom out. This is the time to buy that property for investment for your children and your families future security.
The timing could not be better.
The Gambia is proving most resilient in the face of such catastrophe. The President's strategy, closely underpinned by Finance Minister Balla Gaye of increased food production has had an immeasurable benefit to the countries balance of payments deficit. The further promise of a Mango reprocessing factory is something I have been supporting for several years now. This will give further incentive to the farmers to return back to the land as they see a "margin" for their effort.
Having taken a close look at the potential of tourism between Ecowas countries over the last 3 years... and the increase in local trade, I understand the potential that Ghana and Nigeria have in facilitating the knowledge and progress that The Gambia has especially in the tourism sector.
The Gambia could offer much experience to Nigeria in its approach to the visa and accessibility barriers that require careful relaxation...in order to promote the great benefits to Ecowas nations, that tourism and its foreign currency and investment that this inevitably brings.
I am greatly encouraged by most of what is stated in The President of The Gambia's birthday speech to the nation. Credit where credit is due. I sense a much softer approach from His Excellency. which is very encouraging.
Should anyone wish to place before me a business idea for assistance or assessment, they should forward this to the offices of "Freedom Newspaper" complete with business plan and I would be happy to give an in depth appraisal and breakdown of its potential and merit.
I remain... Michael U.K.
