IEC: New Polls Put Adama Barrow on 55%, Yaya Jammeh 40% and Mama Kandeh 5%

Barely 24 hours before the polls open, Adama Barrow of the Alliance is still leading the incumbent Yaya Jammeh in the polls by 15%, followed by Mama Kandeh of the GDC. There is a reported margin of error of 4%. It seems Both Adama Barrow and Mama Kandeh have taken some points from Jammeh despite the arrival of the 400 Mauritanians and the thousands of people traveling from Casamance and Bissau with Gambians ID cards. 

Our team of fantastic statisticians used sophisticated polling techniques to develop a representative sample with a margin of error of about 4% giving the the problem of analyzing  a collection of data obtained under atmosphere of fear. There is a large number of ‘surprising’ new voters supporting Adama Barrow. These people are not regular voters and most of them don’t care about party loyalties. 

We recorded a response rate of 80%. That means they responded well to our surveys and are more concerned about lack of opportunities for jobs and development. They want change. The majority of electorates say they are tired of the endless promises, the empty visions, the outrageous lies and the frequent buying of votes and loyalties. Others want to bring an end to perpetual rule of dictatorship with its viciousness in dealing with dissent. 

In September 2006, Jammeh was re-elected with 67% of the vote cast.

In 2011 with the introduction of new digital system of voter registration that lead was increased to a ridiculous 73%. This year our polls are predicting with reasonable accuracy and judging from what we see on the ground, Mr. Jammeh cannot poll more than 45% of the votes, of course, barring any fraudulent rigging of the votes which received worldwide condemnation during the past elections.

After the completion of the voter registration exercise in September 2011, the IEC announced the number of registered voters stood at 837, 039 voters. Only to come back on 4 October 2011 and revised the number down to 796, 929 citing spoiled and canceled voters’ cards wrongly included on the register. The difference: 40, 110.

This year, the IEC came up with two different numbers again after the supplementary voter registration, This time the difference between the number reported in March 2016 at the end of that exercise by Mr. Mustapha Carayol , 44, 547 people is different from the 89, 649 voters as announced by Mr. Alieu Momar Njie on 29th September 2016 . The difference: 45, 105. 

There is a pattern of inaccurate reporting of the actual numbers in the voters’ register for both 2011 and 2016. Could this be the number of illegal voters in the register coming from our neighboring countries to vote for Jammeh? The numbers are talking!

It has to be said though that polls are not full-proof but can give important indication about the electorates and what the cross-section of Gambians are really thinking about their candidates. We are not trying to influence the outcome of this historical election, our aim is to set a barometer to be used against any deliberate rigging of the results.

It is very difficult for a sample of electorate to reflect the real universe, the 886, 578 voters to do our polls, but with scientific sampling techniques and the assumptions about the Gambians electorates, we are confident that the citizens of this country will seize this opportunity to bring about the necessary change even if it means crawling over broken glass to vote Yaya Jammeh out.

Insider analyst

Source: Professional Pollsters

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