National Assembly Election 2016: Percentage Of Seats Projected To Be Won By Each Party Out Of The 53 Seats In The House-  APRC (5.67%), GDC (26.42%), GMC (0%), GPDP (0%), NRP (5.66%), NCP (0%), PDOIS (16.98%), PPP (9.43%), UDP (20.75%) And Independent Candidates (15.09%).

The decision by the eight political parties within the Coalition government of Adama Barrow to field in candidates in the National Assembly elections under their respective parties instead of letting the candidates stand under the ticket of the Coalition will result in a catastrophic defeat for the parties especially the UDP. This survey indicated that the alliance are busy competing among themselves in areas where they are supposed to ‘tactically’ field in the best candidates within the coalition. Their division is a gold mine for GDP and for a good number of Independent candidates as well.

Based on a little research carried out within the 53 constituencies this week, the upcoming National Assembly elections will most likely result in a hung parliament with the parties outside of the Barrow’s Coalition government calling the shots. The projections are as follows with a 3 per cent margin of error:

Party               Expected Winning Seats    Total No. Of Candidates      % Of Seats Won

APRC                         3                      28                    5.67%

GDC                 14                    52                    26.42%

GMC                  0                       5                       0%

GPDP                        0                       4                       0%

NRP                 3                      24                    5.66%

NCP                 0                      3                       0%

PDOIS                              9                22                    16.98%

PPP                 5                      13                    9.43%                     

UDP                 11                    43                    20.75%

Independent             8                      42                    15.09%


Table No.1

Nomination of Party Members For The 53 National Assembly Seats By Political Parties Per Region

Region/admin    APRC       GDC GMC GPDP       PDOIS     PPP        NRP NCP UDP INDEPENDENT            

Banjul                 1       3       0       0       1       2       0       0       3       5

Kanifing             6       7       0       3       4       5       2       0       6       4

West Coast         11     11     0       1       4       1       5       0       11     10

Kerewan             0       7       0       0       4       0       5       3       7       4

Mansakonko      1       6       1       0       0       0       1       0       6       0

Janjabureh        6       11     1       0       5       4       10     0       6       13

Basse                  2       7       3       0       4       1       1       0       4       6


TOTAL                 28            52            5              4            22             13            24            3             43            42



Table 2

According to the preliminary survey, Mai Fatty’s GDC and GPDP of Henry Gomez will be without any representation in the National Assembly. Will they continue to hold on to their ministerial positions even without having any MPs for their parties? Likewise the NCP party will fail to win in Kerewan Administrative region where it has 3 candidates who, going by all indications, will definitely find it difficult to make any impact.

It is no doubt that the fragmentation within the coalition has significantly benefited the other parties such as the APRC, PDOIS and the GDC including some independent candidates. The idea for a tactical alliance to promote the agenda of UDP turned out to be a pipe dream. It seems they lack a viable strategy, and going to the polls without a strategy is like going to war without an enemy. Strategy and tactics must work together. If you have a strategy without tactics you have big thinkers and no action. If you have tactics without strategy, you have disorder.

This year’s parliamentary election is truly a remarkable event for our democracy. With the coalition parties at each other’s throats, it is hard to imagine how they can work together to deliver on all the promises they made during the presidential campaign which saw Adama Barrow winning the incumbent by only 3 per cent of the votes cast. The electorates decided for an all-inclusive government, what we are now seeing is far from being a unity government.

Every election is an opportunity for the people to express their will, to have their say in who will lead them and represent them in the shaping of their future. The future is not looking good. We fought and closed a painful chapter now we are faced with challenges tribalism, nepotism, cronyism and ineffectual leadership. As the old aphorism have it “Politicians are the same all over. They promise to build bridges when there are no bridges.”

Insider Analyst

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