Essau reports, in the BBC audio below, that Jammeh’s “possible return is causing a stir” in The Gambia; but Essau does not go into much analysis as to WHY the “stir”. As I have written here in three or four articles, there is ZERO chance of Yahya Jammeh actually “coming home to The Gambia”. I repeat ZERO!
SO WHY THE EXCITEMENT ABOUT “JAMMEH’S RETURN”?
I think the “stir” or excitement is artificially manufactured for the imminent presidential election purposes.
Firstly, President Barrow has absolutely no intention of allowing Jammeh back because (as Essau alludes to) the EU and the International Community, including ECOWAS and Senegal will simply not tolerate it. Barrow knows that and the National People’s Party Administrative Secretary Mambanyick Njieis on record in the Standard today denying that there is any agreement to bring Jammeh back (denying that there is any agreement with Barrow’s current – or future (LOL) government). The reason is very simple: The Gambia’s government will continue to be dependent on the financial support of international institutions and donor support and no president, Barrow or Darboe, will risk that by bringing Jammeh back without putting him on trial. It is not a question of what Barrow or Darboe might want to do: it is a question of what the whole world expects them to do – and that is to put Jammeh on trial using the findings of the TRRC Report.
Secondly, the main challenger to Barrow in the upcoming elections, the UDP party, and the almost overwhelming anti-Barrow Banjul/Kombos political middle-class, are blowing it all out of proportion because Barrow’s alliance with Jammeh’s APRC gives Barrow’s NPP maybe 50,000 to 100,000 more votes. They hope that the idea of Jammeh returning, and the TRRC Report being ignored, might scare voters away from Barrow. As I say, neither Barrow nor Darboe can, even if they wanted to, ignore the TRRC Report as it pertains to Jammeh.
Thirdly, Jammeh may be bad, very bad, but he is not mad. He knows exactly what will happen if he steps a foot out of Equatorial Guinea: the chances are that his plane will be diverted to the Hague and the ICC – likely under President Barrow’s or President Darboe’s orders. Jammeh himself will choose to remain in exile in Equatorial Guinea – unless he is forced to leave.
ONLY THE TRRC REPORT CAN BAN THE APRC!
Banjul/Kombos anti-Barrow commentators, Nyang Njie and Madi Jobarteh have this idea that “the APRC should be banned because they passed Jammeh’s bad laws in the National Assembly during Jammeh’s rule”! But that is a false argument: National Assembly decisions are owned by ALL members of the National Assembly whether they voted for or against; just as Cabinet decisions are owned by ALL members whether they voted for or against. But …
If the TRRC Report indicts Yahya Jammeh as a criminal, and he continues to be the leader of the APRC, the IEC can ban the APRC because the leader of the party is not a proper and fit person to lead a party. And if Jammeh does not lead the APRC it will die a natural death anyway.
Here is Essa Williams’s BBC Report (I hope the link works)
Notting Hill, UK